Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk (Podcast)
Through PPP models, toll revenues can be used to service private sources of finance that can enable fiscally-constrained governments to fund new road construction, improve existing roads and ensure long-term high quality maintenance. However, the credit quality of these kind of PPPs and the associated cost and availability of finance are heavily dependent on project parties being able to accurately forecast traffic and revenues over a horizon sometimes decades in the future. History of highway PPPs tell us that this task has proven notoriously difficult and there are numerous (and even recent) examples of bankruptcies, renogiations and government bail-outs once anticipated traffic and/or revenues have not materialized.
Why does this happen and how can it be prevented so that there is not undue capital flight from these kinds of projects or government’s do not remain liable for a risk they thought they had transferred to the private sector? The answer to these questions are not always as obvious as they might seem and it’s important to distinguish between forecasting error, uncertainty and bias and how to minimize both of these and manage and allocate what risk remains. The new PPIAF and Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF) publication: Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk attempts to answer these questions and provide practical guidance with perspectives from the different parties that operate in a typical highway PPP including the perspectives of a grantor, a financier and a forecaster.
Matt began his career as a Transport Economist with the international consultancy firm Steer Davies Gleave, where he worked as a traffic advisor on transport PPP projects for a range of global clients including governments, sponsors, and financiers. He joined PwC’s UK Corporate Finance team in 2007, where he provided financial and deal structuring advice on both the “sell-side” and “bid-side” of a range of big ticket PPP and PFI transactions. He joined the World Bank’s Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) in 2011 as the facility’s transport sector specialist and was appointed Acting Manager of the facility in 2014. He recently joined the Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF), a major new global funding platform for infrastructure projects housed at the World Bank, within which developed country governments, major development banks, and leading infrastructure investors collaborate to finance improved infrastructure in emerging and developing economies. Matt holds an MA in Transport Economics from the University of Leeds Institute for Transport Studies.
Anita is a transport planner specializing in demand forecasting for major transport-infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, tunnels, railways, ports and tram systems. Over the past 25 years, she has provided demand and revenue advice to governments, bidders, lenders, concessionaires and international finance Institutions for a range of transport infrastructure projects around the world, with each project requiring different forecasting approaches, procurement structures and risk assessments. Her experience ranges from project feasibility to procurement, evaluation, project funding and post-construction monitoring and advice. She is currently a director of the Strategy and Economics team at Steer Davies Gleave, an international transport-planning consultancy firm. She previously worked at CH2M. Anita has recently advised the PPIAF team supporting the development of PPP projects and national government highway policy in developing countries. Anita holds an MSc in transport planning from the University of Leeds’ Institue for Transport Studies.
Lauren began her career at PPIAF in 2011 oversaw the facility’s Global Knowledge portfolio. Lauren was also PPIAF’s transport-sector analyst and provided support to the facility’s senior transport specialist on technical assistance activities in the sector. In 2016 Lauren moved to the GIF, where she advises on the preparation of infrastructure projects with private finance in the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa regions. Lauren holds an MA in economics and international relations from the University of St. Andrews and an MBA from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
Daniel Alberto Benitez
Daniel Alberto Benitez is a Senior Transport Economist at the World Bank. He has been with the World Bank Group since 2000. Benitez has a Ph.D. in Economics, University Toulouse I and Master Economie Mathématique et Econométrie from the University Toulouse I.