"The severity of the 2020 contraction in Saudi Arabia will depend on COVID-19 progression and oil price volatility during the remainder of the year."
COVID-19 and lower oil production levels and prices are weighing heavily on the economy and fiscal position, despite sizable fiscal and monetary mitigation measures. The 2020 outlook remains very weak with medium-term recovery dependent on the global economic rebound and eventual containment of the pandemic. Medium-term fiscal deficits are estimated to continue, leading to a rapidly rising public debt trajectory. The prospects for successful diversification are complementary to a stable fiscal framework that is well signaled to the private sector.